Tottenham 1–0 Newcastle: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Newcastle

H. Kane 50'

5/9/2018

Premier League · Round 31Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Tottenham39%

×Draw27%

Newcastle35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.25

Tottenham

1.33

Newcastle

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 28 away

1.47

creates per match

1.24

1.26

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Newcastle

1.24

allows per match

Tottenham

1.26

Newcastle

1.20

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.05on par

Newcastle-0.35scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

65%

Tottenham or Newcastle

73%

Draw or Newcastle

61%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

17%

Newcastle wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

74%

Tottenham 2+ goals

38%

Tottenham 3+ goals

15%

Newcastle 1+ goals

71%

Newcastle 2+ goals

36%

Newcastle 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

53%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 40 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Newcastle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Newcastle attack 1.24 + Tottenham defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tottenham scores more

39%

level

27%

Newcastle scores more

35%

Tottenham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Vertonghen

Tottenham · D

8.0

Match Events

50'

H. Kane↳ Son Heung-Min

57'

Dele Alli

71'

Jacob Murphy← Kenedy

73'

Matt Ritchie

76'

Joselu← D. Gayle

77'

E. Lamela← Son Heung-Min

80'

Mohamed Diamé

83'

T. Alderweireld← K. Trippier

88'

D. Rose← V. Wanyama

89'

Érik Lamela

90'

DeAndre Yedlin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamNewcastle

Overview

62%Possession38%

11Total Shots14

6Corners4

10Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots14

7On Target3

3Off Target9

1Blocked2

8Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

551Total Passes319

459Accurate Passes211

83%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1