Tottenham 1–2 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Liverpool

E. Lamela 90+3'

Roberto Firmino 54'

G. Wijnaldum 39'

9/15/2018

Premier League · Round 5Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Tottenham36%

×Draw25%

Liverpool39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.44

Tottenham

1.39

Liverpool

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 33 away

1.47

creates per match

1.62

1.26

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Liverpool

1.62

allows per match

Tottenham

1.26

Liverpool

1.31

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.05on par

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

61%

Tottenham or Liverpool

75%

Draw or Liverpool

64%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

17%

Liverpool wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

75%

Tottenham 2+ goals

40%

Tottenham 3+ goals

16%

Liverpool 1+ goals

76%

Liverpool 2+ goals

42%

Liverpool 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

48%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 40 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.31 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Liverpool defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Liverpool attack 1.62 + Tottenham defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tottenham scores more

36%

level

25%

Liverpool scores more

39%

Liverpool at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Vorm

Tottenham · G

7.9

Match Events

39'

G. Wijnaldum

54'

Roberto Firmino

60'

E. Lamela← M. Dembélé

73'

Son Heung-Min← H. Winks

74'

J. Henderson← Roberto Firmino

83'

V. Wanyama← E. Dier

83'

D. Sturridge← N. Keïta

90'

J. Matip← T. Alexander-Arnold

90+3'

E. Lamela↳ C. Eriksen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamLiverpool

Overview

60%Possession40%

11Total Shots17

5Corners4

17Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots17

3On Target10

5Off Target5

3Blocked2

7Inside Box14

4Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

549Total Passes356

443Accurate Passes267

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

8Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls16

3Offsides2