Tottenham 5–4 Leicester: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

5 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Leicester

H. Kane 76', 7'

E. Lamela 60', 49'

C. Fuchs 53' (OG)

J. Vardy 73', 4'

K. Iheanacho 47'

R. Mahrez 16'

5/13/2018

Premier League · Round 38Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Tottenham45%

×Draw23%

Leicester32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.46

Tottenham

1.79

Leicester

1.46

Tottenham creates 23% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 9 away

1.47

creates per match

1.65

1.26

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Leicester

1.65

allows per match

Tottenham

1.26

Leicester

2.11

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.05on par

Leicester-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

68%

Tottenham or Leicester

77%

Draw or Leicester

55%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

24%

Leicester wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

83%

Tottenham 2+ goals

53%

Tottenham 3+ goals

26%

Leicester 1+ goals

77%

Leicester 2+ goals

43%

Leicester 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

59%

Leicester (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 40 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Leicester defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.79

Leicester attack 1.65 + Tottenham defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tottenham scores more

45%

level

23%

Leicester scores more

32%

Tottenham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Vardy

Leicester · F

8.6

Match Events

4'

7'

16'

47'

49'

E. Lamela↳ K. Walker-Peters

53'

C. FuchsOwn goal

55'

Victor Wanyama

56'

H. Choudhury← D. Simpson

60'

E. Lamela↳ K. Walker-Peters

61'

F. Diabaté← D. Gray

73'

J. Vardy↳ R. Mahrez

74'

D. Alli← Lucas Moura

76'

H. Kane↳ D. Rose

78'

D. Sánchez← E. Lamela

83'

Hamza Choudhury

84'

Son Heung-Min← M. Sissoko

85'

H. Barnes← K. Iheanacho

90'

Adrien Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamLeicester

Overview

64%Possession36%

14Total Shots17

4Corners4

9Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots17

6On Target9

5Off Target7

3Blocked1

8Inside Box14

6Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

480Total Passes265

393Accurate Passes193

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4

Premier League: Tottenham 5–4 Leicester

Tottenham beat Leicester 5-4 in Premier League on May 13, 2018.

Goals: J. Vardy (4', 73'), H. Kane (7', 76'), R. Mahrez (16'), K. Iheanacho (47'), E. Lamela (49', 60'), C. Fuchs (53' o.g.).

Tottenham controlled possession (64%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.

Tottenham vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Tottenham 5–4 Leicester