Tottenham 2–3 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.48

Tottenham

1.57

Bournemouth

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

1.23

creates per match

1.59

1.38

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Tottenham

1.23

Bournemouth

1.59

allows per match

Tottenham

1.38

Bournemouth

1.91

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.02on par

Bournemouth-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

64%

Tottenham or Bournemouth

76%

Draw or Bournemouth

60%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

20%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

79%

Tottenham 2+ goals

46%

Tottenham 3+ goals

21%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

77%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

43%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

53%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 28 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.91 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.23 + Bournemouth defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.57

Bournemouth attack 1.59 + Tottenham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tottenham scores more

40%

level

24%

Bournemouth scores more

36%

Tottenham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

D. Solanke

Bournemouth · F

8.7

Match Events

14'

Son Heung-Min↳ I. Perišić

35'

D. Sánchez← C. Lenglet

38'

45+2'

45'

49'

51'

58'

58'

A. Danjuma← D. Sánchez

66'

J. Anthony← R. Christie

77'

Richarlison← O. Skipp

79'

D. Ouattara← M. Tavernier

79'

M. Senesi← P. Billing

88'

A. Danjuma

90+5'

D. Ouattara↳ D. Solanke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamBournemouth

Overview

57%Possession43%

24Total Shots9

2.23Expected Goals (xG)1.31

8Corners1

8Fouls9

Shots

24Total Shots9

8On Target6

8Off Target2

8Blocked1

15Inside Box6

9Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

485Total Passes379

395Accurate Passes289

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Premier League: Tottenham 2–3 Bournemouth

Bournemouth beat Tottenham 3-2 in Premier League on April 15, 2023.

Goals: Son Heung-Min (14'), M. Viña (38'), D. Solanke (51'), A. Danjuma (88'), D. Ouattara (90+5').

Tottenham controlled possession (57%) and registered 24 shots to 9.

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

Tottenham vs Bournemouth — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Tottenham 2–3 Bournemouth