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Tottenham vs Bournemouth — Premier League 2026

Tottenham
Tottenham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
C. Eriksen 47'
10/14/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Tottenham44%
×Draw24%
Bournemouth32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham
1.67
Bournemouth
1.40

Tottenham creates 19% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 29 away

creates per match

Tottenham
1.47
Bournemouth
1.53

allows per match

Tottenham
1.26
Bournemouth
1.88

finishing

Tottenham+0.05on par
Bournemouth-0.12scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Bournemouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw
68%
Tottenham or Bournemouth
76%
Draw or Bournemouth
56%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+
23%
Bournemouth wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals
81%
Tottenham 2+ goals
50%
Tottenham 3+ goals
23%
Bournemouth 1+ goals
75%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
41%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)
58%
Bournemouth (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 40 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Bournemouth defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bournemouth attack 1.53 + Tottenham defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tottenham scores more
44%
level
24%
Bournemouth scores more
32%

Tottenham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
C. EriksenTottenhamTottenham · M
8.2

Match Events

27'
Steve Cook
38'
Adam Smith
47'
C. Eriksen
75'
M. Sissoko← Son Heung-Min
75'
J. Defoe← J. Stanislas
75'
J. Ibe← A. Smith
83'
L. Mousset← L. Cook
84'
Jan Vertonghen
85'
Llorente← H. Kane
90'
Asmir Begović
90+3'
G. N'Koudou← D. Alli

Possession

72%Tottenham

Shots

18Tottenham

Pass accuracy

57%Tottenham

Statistics

TottenhamBournemouth
Overview
72%Possession28%
18Total Shots5
9Corners5
9Fouls7
Shots
18Total Shots5
6On Target1
4Off Target3
8Blocked1
9Inside Box4
9Outside Box1
Passing
72%Possession28%
688Total Passes254
613Accurate Passes169
89%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls7
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

Premier League: Tottenham 1–0 Bournemouth

Tottenham beat Bournemouth 1-0 in Premier League on October 14, 2017.

Goals: C. Eriksen (47').

Tottenham controlled possession (72%) and registered 18 shots to 5.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.