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Tottenham vs Aston Villa — Premier League 2026

Tottenham
Tottenham
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
10/3/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Tottenham44%
×Draw25%
Aston Villa31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham
1.52
Aston Villa
1.22

Tottenham creates 25% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 29 away

creates per match

Tottenham
1.47
Aston Villa
1.14

allows per match

Tottenham
1.30
Aston Villa
1.58

finishing

Tottenham+0.04on par
Aston Villa+0.03on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Aston Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw
69%
Tottenham or Aston Villa
75%
Draw or Aston Villa
56%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+
22%
Aston Villa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals
78%
Tottenham 2+ goals
45%
Tottenham 3+ goals
20%
Aston Villa 1+ goals
70%
Aston Villa 2+ goals
34%
Aston Villa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)
59%
Aston Villa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.58 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Aston Villa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Aston Villa attack 1.14 + Tottenham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tottenham scores more
44%
level
25%
Aston Villa scores more
31%

Tottenham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tottenham vs Aston Villa

Tottenham beat Aston Villa 2-1 in Premier League on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.