Tottenham 0–2 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Arsenal

M. Ødegaard 36'

H. Lloris 14' (OG)

1/15/2023

Premier League · Round 20Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Tottenham31%

×Draw25%

Arsenal43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.50

Tottenham

1.23

Arsenal

1.50

Arsenal creates 22% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 35 away

1.47

creates per match

1.69

1.30

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Arsenal

1.69

allows per match

Tottenham

1.30

Arsenal

1.00

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.04on par

Arsenal+0.31scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

57%

Tottenham or Arsenal

75%

Draw or Arsenal

69%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

13%

Arsenal wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

71%

Tottenham 2+ goals

35%

Tottenham 3+ goals

13%

Arsenal 1+ goals

78%

Arsenal 2+ goals

44%

Arsenal 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

42%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Arsenal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Arsenal attack 1.69 + Tottenham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tottenham scores more

31%

level

25%

Arsenal scores more

43%

Arsenal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Ramsdale

Arsenal · G

8.9

Match Events

14'

H. LlorisOwn goal

35'

36'

45+1'

53'

70'

71'

Richarlison← M. Doherty

72'

Clément Lenglet

76'

Y. Bissouma← P. Sarr

76'

I. Perišić← R. Sessegnon

79'

K. Tierney← Gabriel Martinelli

86'

T. Tomiyasu← O. Zinchenko

88'

Bryan Gil← D. Kulusevski

88'

B. Davies← C. Lenglet

90+1'

Gabriel Magalhães

90+3'

E. Smith Rowe← E. Nketiah

90+4'

Fábio Vieira← M. Ødegaard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamArsenal

Overview

51%Possession49%

17Total Shots14

4Corners3

16Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots14

7On Target5

4Off Target5

6Blocked4

13Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

461Total Passes456

381Accurate Passes384

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

16Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Tottenham vs Arsenal

Arsenal beat Tottenham 2-0 in Premier League on January 15, 2023.

Goals: H. Lloris (14' o.g.), M. Ødegaard (36').

Tottenham controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

Tottenham vs Arsenal — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Tottenham vs Arsenal