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Torrent vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Torrent
Torrent
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
12/13/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 9Estadio San Gregorio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Torrent40%
×Draw27%
Villarreal III32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrent
1.29
Villarreal III
1.13

Torrent creates 14% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 112 away

creates per match

Torrent
1.36
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

Torrent
0.87
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

Torrent+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrent ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Torrent or draw
68%
Torrent or Villarreal III
73%
Draw or Villarreal III
60%

Winning margin

Torrent wins by 2+
18%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Torrent 1+ goals
72%
Torrent 2+ goals
37%
Torrent 3+ goals
14%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
68%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
31%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Torrent (draw refunded)
55%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrent at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.87 · 47 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrent attack 1.36 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Torrent defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Torrent scores more
40%
level
27%
Villarreal III scores more
32%

Torrent at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torrent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torrent vs Villarreal III

Villarreal III beat Torrent 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio San Gregorio in Torrent.