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Torrejón vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Torrejón
Torrejón
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
3/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 33Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Torrejón46%
×Draw28%
Trival Valderas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrejón
1.36
Trival Valderas
0.95

Torrejón creates 43% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 115 away

creates per match

Torrejón
1.43
Trival Valderas
0.97

allows per match

Torrejón
0.93
Trival Valderas
1.30

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par
Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

Trival Valderas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw
74%
Torrejón or Trival Valderas
72%
Draw or Trival Valderas
54%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+
22%
Trival Valderas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals
74%
Torrejón 2+ goals
39%
Torrejón 3+ goals
16%
Trival Valderas 1+ goals
61%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
25%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)
64%
Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torrejón scores more
46%
level
28%
Trival Valderas scores more
26%

Torrejón at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torrejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torrejón 1 – 1 Trival Valderas

Torrejón and Trival Valderas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Las Veredillas in Torrejón de Ardoz.