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Torrejón vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Torrejón
Torrejón
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Leganés II
Leganés II
10/13/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 8Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Torrejón37%
×Draw25%
Leganés II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrejón
1.38
Leganés II
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 79 away

creates per match

Torrejón
1.43
Leganés II
1.89

allows per match

Torrejón
0.93
Leganés II
1.32

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par
Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

Leganés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw
62%
Torrejón or Leganés II
75%
Draw or Leganés II
63%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+
17%
Leganés II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals
75%
Torrejón 2+ goals
40%
Torrejón 3+ goals
16%
Leganés II 1+ goals
76%
Leganés II 2+ goals
41%
Leganés II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)
49%
Leganés II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Torrejón scores more
37%
level
25%
Leganés II scores more
38%

Leganés II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Torrejón 0–2 Leganés II

Leganés II beat Torrejón 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Las Veredillas in Torrejón de Ardoz.