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Torquay vs Hampton & Richmond — League #51 2026

Torquay
Torquay
Preview
14:00
Hampton & Richmond
Hampton & Richmond
8/29/2026League #51League #51 · National League South - 5Plainmoor
59%
Torquay
model favours
59%22%19%

Torquay sit 3, Hampton & Richmond 14 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Torquay59%
×Draw22%
Hampton & Richmond19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torquay
1.97
Hampton & Richmond
1.03

Torquay creates 91% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

creates per match

Torquay
2.19
Hampton & Richmond
0.75

allows per match

Torquay
1.31
Hampton & Richmond
1.75

finishing

Torquay+0.00on par
Hampton & Richmond+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torquay ↓

Hampton & Richmond →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Torquay or draw
81%
Torquay or Hampton & Richmond
78%
Draw or Hampton & Richmond
41%

Winning margin

Torquay wins by 2+
35%
Hampton & Richmond wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Torquay 1+ goals
86%
Torquay 2+ goals
58%
Torquay 3+ goals
31%
Hampton & Richmond 1+ goals
64%
Hampton & Richmond 2+ goals
28%
Hampton & Richmond 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Torquay (draw refunded)
75%
Hampton & Richmond (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torquay at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Hampton & Richmond away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torquay attack 2.19 + Hampton & Richmond defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.97

Hampton & Richmond attack 0.75 + Torquay defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Torquay scores more
59%
level
22%
Hampton & Richmond scores more
19%

Torquay at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Torquay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Torquay and Hampton & Richmond have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Torquay
LWWWW
Richmond
WWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torquay vs Hampton & Richmond — Match Preview

Torquay face Hampton & Richmond on August 29, 2026 in this League #51 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Torquay host Hampton & Richmond at Plainmoor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.