Torpedo Zhodino 1–0 FC Minsk: Result & Stats

Torpedo Zhodino

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Minsk

11/25/2023

Premier League · Round 29Stadyen Tarpeda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Torpedo Zhodino49%

×Draw26%

FC Minsk25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo ZhodinoExpected goals in this matchFC Minsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.98

Torpedo Zhodino

1.51

FC Minsk

0.98

Torpedo Zhodino creates 54% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 125 away

1.48

creates per match

1.02

0.94

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Torpedo Zhodino

1.48

FC Minsk

1.02

allows per match

Torpedo Zhodino

0.94

FC Minsk

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Zhodino+0.00on par

FC Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Zhodino ↓

FC Minsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Torpedo Zhodino or draw

75%

Torpedo Zhodino or FC Minsk

74%

Draw or FC Minsk

51%

Winning margin

Torpedo Zhodino wins by 2+

25%

FC Minsk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Torpedo Zhodino 1+ goals

78%

Torpedo Zhodino 2+ goals

44%

Torpedo Zhodino 3+ goals

19%

FC Minsk 1+ goals

62%

FC Minsk 2+ goals

26%

FC Minsk 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Zhodino (draw refunded)

67%

FC Minsk (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Zhodino at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 128 matches

FC Minsk away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.54 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Zhodino attack 1.48 + FC Minsk defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.51

FC Minsk attack 1.02 + Torpedo Zhodino defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Torpedo Zhodino scores more

49%

level

26%

FC Minsk scores more

25%

Torpedo Zhodino at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Torpedo Zhodino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff