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Torpedo Miass vs Dinamo Stavropol — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
Preview
15:00
Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
10/9/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Division A Silver - 13Trud stadium
45%
Torpedo Miass
model favours
45%27%29%

Torpedo Miass and Dinamo Stavropol have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Torpedo Miass45%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Stavropol29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Miass
1.42
Dinamo Stavropol
1.08

Torpedo Miass creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

Torpedo Miass
1.06
Dinamo Stavropol
1.22

allows per match

Torpedo Miass
0.94
Dinamo Stavropol
1.78

finishing

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par
Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Miass ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torpedo Miass or draw
71%
Torpedo Miass or Dinamo Stavropol
73%
Draw or Dinamo Stavropol
55%

Winning margin

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
22%
Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
76%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
41%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
17%
Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
66%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
61%
Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Miass at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Miass attack 1.06 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Torpedo Miass defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Torpedo Miass scores more
45%
level
27%
Dinamo Stavropol scores more
29%

Torpedo Miass at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Torpedo Miass will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Miass
DLLL
Stavropol
DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Torpedo Miass host Dinamo Stavropol

October 9, 2026: Torpedo Miass take on Dinamo Stavropol in Second League A - Fall Season Silver. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Torpedo Miass host Dinamo Stavropol at Trud stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.