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Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samtredia — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Torpedo Kutaisi
Torpedo Kutaisi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Samtredia
Samtredia
5/6/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 12Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Torpedo Kutaisi53%
×Draw23%
Samtredia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Kutaisi
1.79
Samtredia
1.10

Torpedo Kutaisi creates 63% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 64 away

creates per match

Torpedo Kutaisi
1.58
Samtredia
1.03

allows per match

Torpedo Kutaisi
1.17
Samtredia
2.00

finishing

Torpedo Kutaisi+0.00on par
Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Kutaisi ↓

Samtredia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Torpedo Kutaisi or draw
77%
Torpedo Kutaisi or Samtredia
77%
Draw or Samtredia
47%

Winning margin

Torpedo Kutaisi wins by 2+
30%
Samtredia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Torpedo Kutaisi 1+ goals
83%
Torpedo Kutaisi 2+ goals
53%
Torpedo Kutaisi 3+ goals
26%
Samtredia 1+ goals
67%
Samtredia 2+ goals
30%
Samtredia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Kutaisi (draw refunded)
70%
Samtredia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Kutaisi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Kutaisi attack 1.58 + Samtredia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Samtredia attack 1.03 + Torpedo Kutaisi defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Torpedo Kutaisi scores more
53%
level
23%
Samtredia scores more
23%

Torpedo Kutaisi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Torpedo Kutaisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samtredia

Torpedo Kutaisi beat Samtredia 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze in Samtredia.