Torpedo Kutaisi 2–3 Saburtalo: Result & Stats

Torpedo Kutaisi

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Saburtalo

3/6/2024

Erovnuli Liga · Round 2Ramaz Shengelias Sakhelobis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Torpedo Kutaisi39%

×Draw25%

Saburtalo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo KutaisiExpected goals in this matchSaburtalo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.40

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.46

Saburtalo

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 126 away

1.58

creates per match

1.63

1.17

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.58

Saburtalo

1.63

allows per match

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.17

Saburtalo

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Kutaisi+0.00on par

Saburtalo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Kutaisi ↓

Saburtalo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Torpedo Kutaisi or draw

64%

Torpedo Kutaisi or Saburtalo

75%

Draw or Saburtalo

61%

Winning margin

Torpedo Kutaisi wins by 2+

18%

Saburtalo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Torpedo Kutaisi 1+ goals

77%

Torpedo Kutaisi 2+ goals

43%

Torpedo Kutaisi 3+ goals

18%

Saburtalo 1+ goals

75%

Saburtalo 2+ goals

41%

Saburtalo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Kutaisi (draw refunded)

52%

Saburtalo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Kutaisi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

Saburtalo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Kutaisi attack 1.58 + Saburtalo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Saburtalo attack 1.63 + Torpedo Kutaisi defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torpedo Kutaisi scores more

39%

level

25%

Saburtalo scores more

36%

Torpedo Kutaisi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torpedo Kutaisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff