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Toronto FC vs CF Montreal — Canadian Championship 2018

Toronto FC
Toronto FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
CF Montreal
CF Montrealadvanced
5/9/2023Canadian ChampionshipCanadian Championship · Quarter-finalsBMO Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Toronto FC68%
×Draw18%
CF Montreal14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toronto FC
2.43
CF Montreal
1.01

Toronto FC creates 141% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Toronto FC
3.36
CF Montreal
1.20

allows per match

Toronto FC
0.82
CF Montreal
1.50

finishing

Toronto FC+0.00on par
CF Montreal+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto FC ↓

CF Montreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Toronto FC or draw
86%
Toronto FC or CF Montreal
82%
Draw or CF Montreal
32%

Winning margin

Toronto FC wins by 2+
46%
CF Montreal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Toronto FC 1+ goals
91%
Toronto FC 2+ goals
69%
Toronto FC 3+ goals
43%
CF Montreal 1+ goals
64%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
27%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Toronto FC (draw refunded)
83%
CF Montreal (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto FC at home — creates 3.36, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto FC attack 3.36 + CF Montreal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.43

CF Montreal attack 1.20 + Toronto FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Toronto FC scores more
68%
level
18%
CF Montreal scores more
14%

Toronto FC at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Toronto FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Canadian Championship: Toronto FC 1–2 CF Montreal

CF Montreal beat Toronto FC 2-1 in Canadian Championship on May 9, 2023.

The match was played at BMO Field in Toronto, Ontario.