Toronto FC 3–4 CF Montreal: Result & Stats

Toronto FC

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

CF Montreal

9/4/2022

Major League Soccer · Round 41BMO Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Toronto FC40%

×Draw26%

CF Montreal34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Toronto FCExpected goals in this matchCF Montreal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.29

Toronto FC

1.42

CF Montreal

1.29

Toronto FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

1.07

creates per match

1.39

1.19

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Toronto FC

1.07

CF Montreal

1.39

allows per match

Toronto FC

1.19

CF Montreal

1.76

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Toronto FC+0.20scores more

CF Montreal+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto FC ↓

CF Montreal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Toronto FC or draw

66%

Toronto FC or CF Montreal

74%

Draw or CF Montreal

60%

Winning margin

Toronto FC wins by 2+

19%

CF Montreal wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Toronto FC 1+ goals

76%

Toronto FC 2+ goals

41%

Toronto FC 3+ goals

17%

CF Montreal 1+ goals

72%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

37%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Toronto FC (draw refunded)

54%

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto FC at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.19 · 22 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto FC attack 1.07 + CF Montreal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.42

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + Toronto FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Toronto FC scores more

40%

level

26%

CF Montreal scores more

34%

Toronto FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Toronto FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff