Tormenta 1–1 Forward Madison: Result & Stats

Tormenta

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Forward Madison

3/16/2024

USL League One · Round 2Tormenta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Tormenta41%

×Draw25%

Forward Madison34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TormentaExpected goals in this matchForward Madison

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.35

Tormenta

1.51

Forward Madison

1.35

Tormenta creates 12% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 104 away

1.53

creates per match

1.18

1.52

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Tormenta

1.53

Forward Madison

1.18

allows per match

Tormenta

1.52

Forward Madison

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tormenta+0.00on par

Forward Madison+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta ↓

Forward Madison →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tormenta or draw

66%

Tormenta or Forward Madison

75%

Draw or Forward Madison

59%

Winning margin

Tormenta wins by 2+

20%

Forward Madison wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tormenta 1+ goals

78%

Tormenta 2+ goals

44%

Tormenta 3+ goals

19%

Forward Madison 1+ goals

74%

Forward Madison 2+ goals

39%

Forward Madison 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Tormenta (draw refunded)

55%

Forward Madison (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

Forward Madison away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.49 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta attack 1.53 + Forward Madison defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.51

Forward Madison attack 1.18 + Tormenta defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tormenta scores more

41%

level

25%

Forward Madison scores more

34%

Tormenta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tormenta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff