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Tormenta II vs Peachtree City — USL League Two 2018

Tormenta II
Tormenta II
PST
23:00
Peachtree City
Peachtree City
6/13/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 29Erk Russell Park (Statesboro, Georgia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tormenta II69%
×Draw19%
Peachtree City13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tormenta II
2.20
Peachtree City
0.82

Tormenta II creates 168% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Tormenta II
2.25
Peachtree City
0.90

allows per match

Tormenta II
0.75
Peachtree City
2.15

finishing

Tormenta II+0.00on par
Peachtree City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta II ↓

Peachtree City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tormenta II or draw
87%
Tormenta II or Peachtree City
81%
Draw or Peachtree City
31%

Winning margin

Tormenta II wins by 2+
45%
Peachtree City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tormenta II 1+ goals
89%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
64%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
37%
Peachtree City 1+ goals
56%
Peachtree City 2+ goals
20%
Peachtree City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tormenta II (draw refunded)
84%
Peachtree City (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Peachtree City away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta II attack 2.25 + Peachtree City defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.20

Peachtree City attack 0.90 + Tormenta II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Tormenta II scores more
69%
level
19%
Peachtree City scores more
13%

Tormenta II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tormenta II vs Peachtree City — Match Preview

Tormenta II face Peachtree City on June 13, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tormenta II host Peachtree City at Erk Russell Park (Statesboro, Georgia).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.