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Tormenta II vs Charlotte Independence 2 — USL League Two 2018

Tormenta II
Tormenta II
PST
00:00
Charlotte Independence 2
Charlotte Independence 2
7/1/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 44Erk Russell Park (Statesboro, Georgia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tormenta II62%
×Draw20%
Charlotte Independence 218%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tormenta II
2.23
Charlotte Independence 2
1.13

Tormenta II creates 97% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 42 away

creates per match

Tormenta II
2.25
Charlotte Independence 2
1.50

allows per match

Tormenta II
0.75
Charlotte Independence 2
2.21

finishing

Tormenta II+0.00on par
Charlotte Independence 2+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta II ↓

Charlotte Independence 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Tormenta II or draw
82%
Tormenta II or Charlotte Independence 2
80%
Draw or Charlotte Independence 2
38%

Winning margin

Tormenta II wins by 2+
39%
Charlotte Independence 2 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tormenta II 1+ goals
89%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
65%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
38%
Charlotte Independence 2 1+ goals
68%
Charlotte Independence 2 2+ goals
31%
Charlotte Independence 2 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tormenta II (draw refunded)
77%
Charlotte Independence 2 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Charlotte Independence 2 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta II attack 2.25 + Charlotte Independence 2 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.23

Charlotte Independence 2 attack 1.50 + Tormenta II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Tormenta II scores more
62%
level
20%
Charlotte Independence 2 scores more
18%

Tormenta II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tormenta II vs Charlotte Independence 2 — Match Preview

Tormenta II face Charlotte Independence 2 on July 1, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tormenta II host Charlotte Independence 2 at Erk Russell Park (Statesboro, Georgia).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.