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Tormenta II vs Asheville City — USL League Two 2018

Tormenta II
Tormenta II
PST
23:00
Asheville City
Asheville City
5/15/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 3Erk Russell Park (Statesboro, Georgia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tormenta II41%
×Draw24%
Asheville City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tormenta II
1.60
Asheville City
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 42 away

creates per match

Tormenta II
2.25
Asheville City
2.21

allows per match

Tormenta II
0.75
Asheville City
0.95

finishing

Tormenta II+0.00on par
Asheville City+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tormenta II ↓

Asheville City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tormenta II or draw
65%
Tormenta II or Asheville City
76%
Draw or Asheville City
59%

Winning margin

Tormenta II wins by 2+
20%
Asheville City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tormenta II 1+ goals
80%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
47%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
22%
Asheville City 1+ goals
77%
Asheville City 2+ goals
43%
Asheville City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tormenta II (draw refunded)
53%
Asheville City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tormenta II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Asheville City away — creates 2.21, concedes 0.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tormenta II attack 2.25 + Asheville City defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.60

Asheville City attack 2.21 + Tormenta II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tormenta II scores more
41%
level
24%
Asheville City scores more
35%

Tormenta II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tormenta II host Asheville City

May 15, 2020: Tormenta II take on Asheville City in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tormenta II host Asheville City at Erk Russell Park (Statesboro, Georgia).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.