Torino 1–3 Sampdoria: Result & Stats | Serie A

Torino

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Sampdoria

Simone Verdi 55'

Fabio Quagliarella 79' (pen)

Gastón Ramírez 75', 70'

2/8/2020

Serie A · Round 23Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Torino45%

×Draw25%

Sampdoria30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorinoExpected goals in this matchSampdoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.18

Torino

1.52

Sampdoria

1.18

Torino creates 29% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 96 away

1.24

creates per match

1.11

1.24

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Torino

1.24

Sampdoria

1.11

allows per match

Torino

1.24

Sampdoria

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torino+0.00on par

Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino ↓

Sampdoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Torino or draw

70%

Torino or Sampdoria

75%

Draw or Sampdoria

55%

Winning margin

Torino wins by 2+

22%

Sampdoria wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Torino 1+ goals

78%

Torino 2+ goals

45%

Torino 3+ goals

20%

Sampdoria 1+ goals

69%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

33%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Torino (draw refunded)

60%

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.81 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino attack 1.24 + Sampdoria defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sampdoria attack 1.11 + Torino defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Torino scores more

45%

level

25%

Sampdoria scores more

30%

Torino at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Torino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Gastón Ramírez

Sampdoria · M

8.8

Match Events

21'

22'

39'

45'

55'

Simone Verdi↳ Alex Berenguer

59'

Andrea Belotti

68'

Nicola Murru

68'

Jakub Jankto← Morten Thorsby

69'

Tomás Rincón

70'

Gastón Ramírez

75'

Gastón Ramírez↳ Fabio Quagliarella

75'

Cristian Ansaldi← Ola Aina

77'

Armando Izzo

79'

Fabio QuagliarellaPenalty

82'

Soualiho Meïté← Simone Verdi

83'

Omar Colley

86'

Andrea Bertolacci← Gastón Ramírez

90'

Antonino La Gumina← Fabio Quagliarella

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TorinoSampdoria

Overview

55%Possession45%

6Total Shots15

2Corners3

16Fouls19

Shots

6Total Shots15

2On Target5

0Off Target3

4Blocked7

5Inside Box8

1Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

501Total Passes394

422Accurate Passes301

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls19

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

5Offsides3

Serie A: Torino 1–3 Sampdoria

Sampdoria beat Torino 3-1 in Serie A on February 8, 2020.

Goals: Simone Verdi (55'), Gastón Ramírez (70', 75'), Fabio Quagliarella (79' pen).

Torino controlled possession (55%) and registered 6 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Torino.

Torino vs Sampdoria — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Torino 1–3 Sampdoria