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Torino vs Lazio — Serie A 2018

Torino
Torino
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lazio
Lazio
8/20/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 2Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Torino36%
×Draw27%
Lazio38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino
1.25
Lazio
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 26 away

creates per match

Torino
1.25
Lazio
1.08

allows per match

Torino
1.49
Lazio
1.26

finishing

Torino-0.02on par
Lazio-0.04on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torino or draw
62%
Torino or Lazio
73%
Draw or Lazio
64%

Winning margin

Torino wins by 2+
15%
Lazio wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Torino 1+ goals
71%
Torino 2+ goals
36%
Torino 3+ goals
13%
Lazio 1+ goals
72%
Lazio 2+ goals
37%
Lazio 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Torino (draw refunded)
49%
Lazio (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.49 · 30 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino attack 1.25 + Lazio defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Lazio attack 1.08 + Torino defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Torino scores more
36%
level
27%
Lazio scores more
38%

Lazio at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torino 0 – 0 Lazio

Torino and Lazio drew 0-0 in Serie A on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Torino.