Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Torino vs Lazio — Serie A 2026

Torino
Torino
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Lazio
Lazio
S. Lukić 87'
A. Belotti 25' (pen)
Bremer 19'
F. Caicedo 90+8'
C. Immobile 90+5' (pen)
S. Milinković-Savić 48'
Andreas Pereira 15'
11/1/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 6Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Torino37%
×Draw27%
Lazio36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino
1.27
Lazio
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 28 away

creates per match

Torino
1.24
Lazio
1.09

allows per match

Torino
1.42
Lazio
1.31

finishing

Torino-0.06on par
Lazio-0.05on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torino or draw
64%
Torino or Lazio
73%
Draw or Lazio
63%

Winning margin

Torino wins by 2+
16%
Lazio wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Torino 1+ goals
72%
Torino 2+ goals
36%
Torino 3+ goals
14%
Lazio 1+ goals
71%
Lazio 2+ goals
36%
Lazio 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Torino (draw refunded)
51%
Lazio (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.31 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino attack 1.24 + Lazio defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lazio attack 1.09 + Torino defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Torino scores more
37%
level
27%
Lazio scores more
36%

Torino at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Torino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
BremerTorinoTorino · D
7.3

Match Events

15'
Andreas Pereira↳ Patric
19'
Bremer↳ S. Verdi
25'
A. BelottiPenalty
44'
Andreas Pereira
46'
J. Akpa Akpro← Andreas Pereira
46'
Lucas Leiva← M. Parolo
48'
S. Milinković-Savić
56'
C. Immobile← V. Muriqi
70'
W. Singo← M. Vojvoda
71'
N. N'Koulou← S. Verdi
73'
F. Caicedo← J. Correa
77'
F. Bonazzoli← A. Belotti
81'
D. Cataldi← M. Fares
85'
Wesley Hoedt
87'
S. Lukić
88'
Ciro Immobile
90'
Tomás Rincón
90'
Nicolas N'Koulou
90'
Felipe Caicedo
90'
Ciro ImmobileGoal cancelled
90+5'
C. ImmobilePenalty
90+8'
F. Caicedo

Possession

45%Torino

Shots

11Torino

Pass accuracy

49%Torino

Statistics

TorinoLazio
Overview
45%Possession55%
11Total Shots12
7Corners1
11Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots12
4On Target5
3Off Target4
4Blocked3
7Inside Box9
4Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
445Total Passes540
383Accurate Passes473
86%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls11
2Yellow Cards4
2Offsides3

Serie A: Torino 3–4 Lazio

Lazio beat Torino 4-3 in Serie A on November 1, 2020.

Goals: Andreas Pereira (15'), Bremer (19'), A. Belotti (25' pen), S. Milinković-Savić (48'), S. Lukić (87'), C. Immobile (90+5' pen), F. Caicedo (90+8').

Lazio controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Torino.