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Torino vs Genoa — Serie A 2018

Torino
Torino
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Genoa
Genoa
2/13/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 22Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Torino39%
×Draw26%
Genoa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino
1.36
Genoa
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 27 away

creates per match

Torino
1.25
Genoa
1.04

allows per match

Torino
1.49
Genoa
1.47

finishing

Torino-0.02on par
Genoa-0.11scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino ↓

Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Torino or draw
65%
Torino or Genoa
74%
Draw or Genoa
61%

Winning margin

Torino wins by 2+
18%
Genoa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Torino 1+ goals
74%
Torino 2+ goals
39%
Torino 3+ goals
16%
Genoa 1+ goals
72%
Genoa 2+ goals
36%
Genoa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Torino (draw refunded)
53%
Genoa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.49 · 30 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino attack 1.25 + Genoa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Genoa attack 1.04 + Torino defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Torino scores more
39%
level
26%
Genoa scores more
35%

Torino at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torino 0 – 0 Genoa

Torino and Genoa drew 0-0 in Serie A on February 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Torino.