Torino 2–3 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie A

Torino

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Cagliari

A. Belotti 49', 4' (pen)

G. Simeone 73', 19'

João Pedro 12'

10/18/2020

Serie A · Round 4Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Torino42%

×Draw26%

Cagliari32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorinoExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.21

Torino

1.44

Cagliari

1.21

Torino creates 19% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 25 away

1.22

creates per match

0.95

1.46

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Torino

1.22

Cagliari

0.95

allows per match

Torino

1.46

Cagliari

1.67

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Torino+0.01on par

Cagliari-0.03on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Torino or draw

68%

Torino or Cagliari

74%

Draw or Cagliari

58%

Winning margin

Torino wins by 2+

20%

Cagliari wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Torino 1+ goals

76%

Torino 2+ goals

42%

Torino 3+ goals

18%

Cagliari 1+ goals

70%

Cagliari 2+ goals

34%

Cagliari 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Torino (draw refunded)

57%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.46 · 31 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino attack 1.22 + Cagliari defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cagliari attack 0.95 + Torino defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torino scores more

42%

level

26%

Cagliari scores more

32%

Torino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Torino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

G. Simeone

Cagliari · F

8.9

Match Events

-5'

Vanja Milinković-Savić

4'

A. BelottiPenalty

12'

João Pedro↳ S. Walukiewicz

19'

G. Simeone

31'

Tomás Rincón

31'

Marko Rog

49'

A. Belotti↳ F. Bonazzoli

64'

Federico Bonazzoli

73'

G. Simeone

75'

Charalampos Lykogiannis

76'

L. Pavoletti← G. Simeone

79'

S. Verdi← S. Meïté

79'

W. Singo← M. Vojvoda

84'

A. Ounas← R. Sottil

85'

F. Caligara← João Pedro

88'

C. Ansaldi← K. Linetty

88'

N. Murru← R. Rodríguez

89'

Leonardo Pavoletti

90'

R. Klavan← M. Rog

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TorinoCagliari

Overview

59%Possession41%

13Total Shots12

2Corners4

14Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots12

6On Target5

5Off Target5

2Blocked2

9Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

519Total Passes356

467Accurate Passes295

90%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides4