Torino 2–1 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

Torino

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AC Milan

Andrea Belotti 76', 72'

Krzysztof Piątek 18' (pen)

9/26/2019

Serie A · Round 5Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Torino32%

×Draw26%

AC Milan42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorinoExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.46

Torino

1.23

AC Milan

1.46

AC Milan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 33 away

1.24

creates per match

1.50

1.42

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Torino

1.24

AC Milan

1.50

allows per match

Torino

1.42

AC Milan

1.23

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Torino-0.10scores less

AC Milan-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Torino or draw

58%

Torino or AC Milan

74%

Draw or AC Milan

68%

Winning margin

Torino wins by 2+

13%

AC Milan wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Torino 1+ goals

71%

Torino 2+ goals

35%

Torino 3+ goals

13%

AC Milan 1+ goals

77%

AC Milan 2+ goals

43%

AC Milan 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Torino (draw refunded)

43%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.42 · 35 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino attack 1.24 + AC Milan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Torino defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torino scores more

32%

level

26%

AC Milan scores more

42%

AC Milan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Andrea Belotti

Torino · F

8.4

Match Events

8'

Lyanco

18'

Krzysztof PiątekPenalty

21'

Ismaël Bennacer

31'

Simone Zaza

33'

Andrea Belotti

57'

Cristian Ansaldi← Lyanco

63'

Theo Hernández

65'

Giacomo Bonaventura← Rafael Leão

66'

Alex Berenguer← Simone Verdi

72'

Andrea Belotti↳ Tomás Rincón

72'

72'

76'

77'

78'

Ante Rebić← Ismaël Bennacer

81'

Ola Aina

83'

Koffi Djidji← Ola Aina

88'

Mateo Musacchio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TorinoAC

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots16

3Corners5

14Fouls20

Shots

9Total Shots16

4On Target4

5Off Target11

0Blocked1

4Inside Box11

5Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

354Total Passes429

276Accurate Passes347

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls20

4Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Torino vs AC Milan

Torino beat AC Milan 2-1 in Serie A on September 26, 2019.

Goals: Krzysztof Piątek (18' pen), Andrea Belotti (72', 76').

AC Milan controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Torino.

Torino vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Torino vs AC Milan