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Torino vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

Torino
Torino
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AC Milan
AC Milan
Álex Berenguer 69'
A. Belotti 58' (pen)
4/28/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 34Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Torino32%
×Draw26%
AC Milan42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino
1.23
AC Milan
1.46

AC Milan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 33 away

creates per match

Torino
1.24
AC Milan
1.50

allows per match

Torino
1.42
AC Milan
1.23

finishing

Torino-0.10scores less
AC Milan-0.11scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Torino or draw
58%
Torino or AC Milan
74%
Draw or AC Milan
68%

Winning margin

Torino wins by 2+
13%
AC Milan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Torino 1+ goals
71%
Torino 2+ goals
35%
Torino 3+ goals
13%
AC Milan 1+ goals
77%
AC Milan 2+ goals
43%
AC Milan 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Torino (draw refunded)
43%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.42 · 35 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino attack 1.24 + AC Milan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Torino defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torino scores more
32%
level
26%
AC Milan scores more
42%

AC Milan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
A. IzzoTorinoTorino · D
8.1

Match Events

8'
Suso
13'
Andrea Conti
16'
Lucas Paquetá
58'
A. BelottiPenalty
62'
F. Borini← Suso
62'
K. Piątek← Lucas Paquetá
65'
Emiliano Moretti
69'
Álex Berenguer
71'
Samu Castillejo← A. Conti
73'
V. Parigini← Álex Berenguer
77'
Alessio Romagnoli
81'
Gianluigi Donnarumma
81'
Alessio Romagnoli
83'
Vittorio Parigini
83'
Franck Kessié
87'
O. Aina← T. Rincón
90+5'
Bremer← V. Parigini

Possession

42%Torino

Shots

11Torino

Pass accuracy

48%Torino

Statistics

TorinoAC
Overview
42%Possession58%
11Total Shots12
4Corners9
19Fouls21
Shots
11Total Shots12
3On Target3
5Off Target6
3Blocked3
8Inside Box7
3Outside Box5
Passing
42%Possession58%
286Total Passes393
202Accurate Passes298
71%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
19Fouls21
2Yellow Cards6
–Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Torino vs AC Milan

Torino beat AC Milan 2-0 in Serie A on April 28, 2019.

Goals: A. Belotti (58' pen), Álex Berenguer (69').

AC Milan controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Torino.