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Torino U20 vs Parma U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Torino U20
Torino U20
Preview
10:00
Parma U20
Parma U20
1/23/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 21
37%
Torino U20
model favours
37%26%37%

Torino U20 win just 19% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Torino U2037%
×Draw26%
Parma U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino U20
1.29
Parma U20
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 20 away

creates per match

Torino U20
1.58
Parma U20
1.40

allows per match

Torino U20
1.21
Parma U20
1.00

finishing

Torino U20+0.00on par
Parma U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino U20 ↓

Parma U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Torino U20 or draw
63%
Torino U20 or Parma U20
74%
Draw or Parma U20
63%

Winning margin

Torino U20 wins by 2+
16%
Parma U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Torino U20 1+ goals
72%
Torino U20 2+ goals
37%
Torino U20 3+ goals
14%
Parma U20 1+ goals
73%
Parma U20 2+ goals
37%
Parma U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Torino U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Parma U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Parma U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino U20 attack 1.58 + Parma U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Parma U20 attack 1.40 + Torino U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Torino U20 scores more
37%
level
26%
Parma U20 scores more
37%

Torino U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Torino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Torino U20 sit 13, Parma U20 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DWLDL
U20
LWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torino U20 face Parma U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)

Campionato Primavera - 1 returns with Torino U20 hosting Parma U20. Match starts January 23, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.