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Torina vs Tropezón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Torina
Torina
CANC
00:00
Tropezón
Tropezón
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 35Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Torina35%
×Draw26%
Tropezón38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torina
1.27
Tropezón
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 94 away

creates per match

Torina
1.45
Tropezón
1.55

allows per match

Torina
1.10
Tropezón
1.09

finishing

Torina+0.00on par
Tropezón+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torina ↓

Tropezón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Torina or draw
62%
Torina or Tropezón
74%
Draw or Tropezón
65%

Winning margin

Torina wins by 2+
15%
Tropezón wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Torina 1+ goals
72%
Torina 2+ goals
36%
Torina 3+ goals
14%
Tropezón 1+ goals
74%
Tropezón 2+ goals
38%
Tropezón 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Torina (draw refunded)
48%
Tropezón (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 110 matches

Tropezón away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torina attack 1.45 + Tropezón defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tropezón attack 1.55 + Torina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Torina scores more
35%
level
26%
Tropezón scores more
38%

Tropezón at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tropezón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Torina host Tropezón

April 26, 2020: Torina take on Tropezón in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Torina host Tropezón at Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.