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Torina vs Laredo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Torina
Torina
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Laredo
Laredo
12/14/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Torina30%
×Draw27%
Laredo43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torina
1.11
Laredo
1.38

Laredo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 51 away

creates per match

Torina
1.45
Laredo
1.65

allows per match

Torina
1.10
Laredo
0.78

finishing

Torina+0.00on par
Laredo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torina ↓

Laredo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torina or draw
57%
Torina or Laredo
73%
Draw or Laredo
70%

Winning margin

Torina wins by 2+
12%
Laredo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Torina 1+ goals
67%
Torina 2+ goals
30%
Torina 3+ goals
10%
Laredo 1+ goals
75%
Laredo 2+ goals
40%
Laredo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Torina (draw refunded)
41%
Laredo (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 110 matches

Laredo away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torina attack 1.45 + Laredo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.11

Laredo attack 1.65 + Torina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torina scores more
30%
level
27%
Laredo scores more
43%

Laredo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Laredo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torina 1 – 3 Laredo

Laredo beat Torina 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Bárcena de Pie de Concha in Bárcena de Pie de Concha.