Tonnerre 1–0 Réal Sport: Result & Stats

Tonnerre

FT

1 – 0

Réal Sport

4/24/2021

Championnat National · Relegation Round - 1Stade Omnisports Paulin Tomanaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Tonnerre46%

×Draw32%

Réal Sport22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TonnerreExpected goals in this matchRéal Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.66

Tonnerre

1.09

Réal Sport

0.66

Tonnerre creates 65% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 82 away

1.03

creates per match

0.46

0.86

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Tonnerre

1.03

Réal Sport

0.46

allows per match

Tonnerre

0.86

Réal Sport

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par

Réal Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

Réal Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw

78%

Tonnerre or Réal Sport

68%

Draw or Réal Sport

54%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+

19%

Réal Sport wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals

66%

Tonnerre 2+ goals

30%

Tonnerre 3+ goals

10%

Réal Sport 1+ goals

48%

Réal Sport 2+ goals

14%

Réal Sport 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)

67%

Réal Sport (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 86 matches

Réal Sport away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.16 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.03 + Réal Sport defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Réal Sport attack 0.46 + Tonnerre defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tonnerre scores more

46%

level

32%

Réal Sport scores more

22%

Tonnerre at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff