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Tonnerre vs Dragons — Championnat National 2019

Tonnerre
Tonnerre
PST
15:00
Dragons
Dragons
4/12/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 22Stade Omnisports Paulin Tomanaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Tonnerre39%
×Draw32%
Dragons29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonnerre
1.03
Dragons
0.85

Tonnerre creates 21% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 117 away

creates per match

Tonnerre
1.04
Dragons
0.82

allows per match

Tonnerre
0.88
Dragons
1.02

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par
Dragons+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

Dragons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw
71%
Tonnerre or Dragons
68%
Draw or Dragons
61%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+
15%
Dragons wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals
64%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
28%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
9%
Dragons 1+ goals
57%
Dragons 2+ goals
21%
Dragons 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)
57%
Dragons (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.88 · 84 matches

Dragons away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.02 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.04 + Dragons defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.03

Dragons attack 0.82 + Tonnerre defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tonnerre scores more
39%
level
32%
Dragons scores more
29%

Tonnerre at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tonnerre host Dragons

April 12, 2020: Tonnerre take on Dragons in Championnat National. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tonnerre host Dragons at Stade Omnisports Paulin Tomanaga.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.