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Tondela vs Sporting CP B — Segunda Liga 2018

Tondela
Tondela
Preview
16:00
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
3/21/2027Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 27
43%
Tondela
model favours
43%27%30%

Tondela score first in only 16% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Tondela43%
×Draw27%
Sporting CP B30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tondela
1.34
Sporting CP B
1.06

Tondela creates 26% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 26 away

creates per match

Tondela
1.33
Sporting CP B
0.96

allows per match

Tondela
1.16
Sporting CP B
1.35

finishing

Tondela+0.00on par
Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 57Over: 4357%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

Sporting CP B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tondela or draw
70%
Tondela or Sporting CP B
73%
Draw or Sporting CP B
57%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+
20%
Sporting CP B wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals
74%
Tondela 2+ goals
39%
Tondela 3+ goals
15%
Sporting CP B 1+ goals
65%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
29%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)
59%
Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.33 + Sporting CP B defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sporting CP B attack 0.96 + Tondela defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tondela scores more
43%
level
27%
Sporting CP B scores more
30%

Tondela at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Tondela have scored in 7 games running
  • Tondela and Sporting CP B have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Tondela
Balanced
Sporting CP B
Balanced
46%PossessionBiggest gap55%
75%Pass accuracy82%
9.1Shots10.2
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TondelaSporting CP B

Head-to-head

First-ever meeting

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tondela
LWDW
B
DLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tondela host Sporting CP B

March 21, 2027: Tondela take on Sporting CP B in Segunda Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.