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Tondela vs Belenenses — Primeira Liga 2018

Tondela
Tondela
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Belenenses
Belenenses
12/1/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 12Estádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Tondela40%
×Draw28%
Belenenses32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tondela
1.23
Belenenses
1.07

Tondela creates 15% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 68 away

creates per match

Tondela
1.05
Belenenses
0.72

allows per match

Tondela
1.42
Belenenses
1.41

finishing

Tondela+0.00on par
Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

Belenenses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tondela or draw
68%
Tondela or Belenenses
72%
Draw or Belenenses
60%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+
17%
Belenenses wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals
71%
Tondela 2+ goals
35%
Tondela 3+ goals
13%
Belenenses 1+ goals
66%
Belenenses 2+ goals
29%
Belenenses 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)
55%
Belenenses (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Belenenses away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.05 + Belenenses defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Belenenses attack 0.72 + Tondela defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tondela scores more
40%
level
28%
Belenenses scores more
32%

Tondela at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tondela vs Belenenses

Belenenses beat Tondela 1-0 in Primeira Liga on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio João Cardoso in Tondela.