Tonbridge Angels vs Weston-super-Mare

Tonbridge Angels

Preview

15:00

Weston-super-Mare

11/21/2026

League #51 · National League South - 17

49%

Tonbridge Angels

model favours

49%26%26%

Tonbridge Angels and Weston-super-Mare have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tonbridge Angels49%

×Draw26%

Weston-super-Mare26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tonbridge AngelsExpected goals in this matchWeston-super-Mare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.03

Tonbridge Angels

1.53

Weston-super-Mare

1.03

Tonbridge Angels creates 49% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

1.67

creates per match

1.40

0.67

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Tonbridge Angels

1.67

Weston-super-Mare

1.40

allows per match

Tonbridge Angels

0.67

Weston-super-Mare

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tonbridge Angels+0.00on par

Weston-super-Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonbridge Angels ↓

Weston-super-Mare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tonbridge Angels or draw

74%

Tonbridge Angels or Weston-super-Mare

74%

Draw or Weston-super-Mare

51%

Winning margin

Tonbridge Angels wins by 2+

25%

Weston-super-Mare wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tonbridge Angels 1+ goals

78%

Tonbridge Angels 2+ goals

45%

Tonbridge Angels 3+ goals

20%

Weston-super-Mare 1+ goals

64%

Weston-super-Mare 2+ goals

28%

Weston-super-Mare 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tonbridge Angels (draw refunded)

66%

Weston-super-Mare (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonbridge Angels at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Weston-super-Mare away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonbridge Angels attack 1.67 + Weston-super-Mare defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Weston-super-Mare attack 1.40 + Tonbridge Angels defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tonbridge Angels scores more

49%

level

26%

Weston-super-Mare scores more

26%

Tonbridge Angels at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tonbridge Angels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Angels

LWWWW

Weston-super-Mare

WLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff