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Tonbridge Angels vs Torquay — League #51 2026

Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels
Preview
14:00
Torquay
Torquay
8/15/2026League #51League #51 · National League South - 2
48%
Tonbridge Angels
model favours
48%26%26%

Tonbridge Angels and Torquay have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tonbridge Angels48%
×Draw26%
Torquay26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonbridge Angels
1.46
Torquay
0.99

Tonbridge Angels creates 47% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

creates per match

Tonbridge Angels
1.67
Torquay
1.31

allows per match

Tonbridge Angels
0.67
Torquay
1.25

finishing

Tonbridge Angels+0.00on par
Torquay+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonbridge Angels ↓

Torquay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tonbridge Angels or draw
74%
Tonbridge Angels or Torquay
74%
Draw or Torquay
52%

Winning margin

Tonbridge Angels wins by 2+
24%
Torquay wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tonbridge Angels 1+ goals
77%
Tonbridge Angels 2+ goals
43%
Tonbridge Angels 3+ goals
18%
Torquay 1+ goals
63%
Torquay 2+ goals
26%
Torquay 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tonbridge Angels (draw refunded)
65%
Torquay (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonbridge Angels at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Torquay away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonbridge Angels attack 1.67 + Torquay defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Torquay attack 1.31 + Tonbridge Angels defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tonbridge Angels scores more
48%
level
26%
Torquay scores more
26%

Tonbridge Angels at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tonbridge Angels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Angels
LWWWW
Torquay
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tonbridge Angels vs Torquay — Match Preview

Tonbridge Angels face Torquay on August 15, 2026 in this League #51 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.