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Tonbridge Angels vs Maidstone Utd — League #51 2026

Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels
Preview
18:45
Maidstone Utd
Maidstone Utd
9/8/2026League #51League #51 · National League South - 8
44%
Maidstone Utd
model favours
26%30%44%

Tonbridge Angels and Maidstone Utd have never met before

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
68%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tonbridge Angels26%
×Draw30%
Maidstone Utd44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonbridge Angels
0.83
Maidstone Utd
1.17

Maidstone Utd creates 41% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tonbridge Angels
1.67
Maidstone Utd
1.67

allows per match

Tonbridge Angels
0.67
Maidstone Utd
0.00

finishing

Tonbridge Angels+0.00on par
Maidstone Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonbridge Angels ↓

Maidstone Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tonbridge Angels or draw
56%
Tonbridge Angels or Maidstone Utd
70%
Draw or Maidstone Utd
74%

Winning margin

Tonbridge Angels wins by 2+
8%
Maidstone Utd wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tonbridge Angels 1+ goals
56%
Tonbridge Angels 2+ goals
20%
Tonbridge Angels 3+ goals
5%
Maidstone Utd 1+ goals
69%
Maidstone Utd 2+ goals
33%
Maidstone Utd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tonbridge Angels (draw refunded)
37%
Maidstone Utd (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonbridge Angels at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Maidstone Utd away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonbridge Angels attack 1.67 + Maidstone Utd defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Maidstone Utd attack 1.67 + Tonbridge Angels defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tonbridge Angels scores more
26%
level
30%
Maidstone Utd scores more
44%

Maidstone Utd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Maidstone Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Angels
LWWWW
Utd
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tonbridge Angels face Maidstone Utd (League #51)

League #51 returns with Tonbridge Angels hosting Maidstone Utd. Match starts September 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.