Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tonbridge Angels vs Ebbsfleet United — League #51 2026

Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels
Preview
14:00
Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United
9/26/2026League #51League #51 · National League South - 10
65%
Tonbridge Angels
model favours
65%22%13%

Ebbsfleet United score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tonbridge Angels65%
×Draw22%
Ebbsfleet United13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonbridge Angels
1.83
Ebbsfleet United
0.67

Tonbridge Angels creates 173% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tonbridge Angels
1.67
Ebbsfleet United
0.67

allows per match

Tonbridge Angels
0.67
Ebbsfleet United
2.00

finishing

Tonbridge Angels+0.00on par
Ebbsfleet United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonbridge Angels ↓

Ebbsfleet United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tonbridge Angels or draw
87%
Tonbridge Angels or Ebbsfleet United
78%
Draw or Ebbsfleet United
35%

Winning margin

Tonbridge Angels wins by 2+
39%
Ebbsfleet United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tonbridge Angels 1+ goals
84%
Tonbridge Angels 2+ goals
54%
Tonbridge Angels 3+ goals
28%
Ebbsfleet United 1+ goals
49%
Ebbsfleet United 2+ goals
15%
Ebbsfleet United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tonbridge Angels (draw refunded)
83%
Ebbsfleet United (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonbridge Angels at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Ebbsfleet United away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonbridge Angels attack 1.67 + Ebbsfleet United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ebbsfleet United attack 0.67 + Tonbridge Angels defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tonbridge Angels scores more
65%
level
22%
Ebbsfleet United scores more
13%

Tonbridge Angels at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tonbridge Angels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of Ebbsfleet United’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Tonbridge Angels sit 5, Ebbsfleet United 15 in the table
  • Tonbridge Angels and Ebbsfleet United have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Angels
LWWWW
United
LWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tonbridge Angels host Ebbsfleet United

September 26, 2026: Tonbridge Angels take on Ebbsfleet United in League #51. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.