Tonbridge Angels vs Chesham United

Tonbridge Angels

Preview

14:00

Chesham United

10/17/2026

League #51 · National League South - 12

49%

Tonbridge Angels

model favours

49%27%25%

Tonbridge Angels and Chesham United have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

58%

under 2.5 goals

46%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tonbridge Angels49%

×Draw27%

Chesham United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tonbridge AngelsExpected goals in this matchChesham United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.94

Tonbridge Angels

1.44

Chesham United

0.94

Tonbridge Angels creates 53% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

1.20

0.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Tonbridge Angels

1.67

Chesham United

1.20

allows per match

Tonbridge Angels

0.67

Chesham United

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tonbridge Angels+0.00on par

Chesham United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonbridge Angels ↓

Chesham United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tonbridge Angels or draw

75%

Tonbridge Angels or Chesham United

73%

Draw or Chesham United

51%

Winning margin

Tonbridge Angels wins by 2+

24%

Chesham United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tonbridge Angels 1+ goals

76%

Tonbridge Angels 2+ goals

42%

Tonbridge Angels 3+ goals

18%

Chesham United 1+ goals

61%

Chesham United 2+ goals

24%

Chesham United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tonbridge Angels (draw refunded)

66%

Chesham United (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonbridge Angels at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Chesham United away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonbridge Angels attack 1.67 + Chesham United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Chesham United attack 1.20 + Tonbridge Angels defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tonbridge Angels scores more

49%

level

27%

Chesham United scores more

25%

Tonbridge Angels at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tonbridge Angels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Angels

LWWWW

United

LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff