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Tomori Berat vs Lushnja — 1st Division 2019

Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lushnja
Lushnja
9/25/20211st Division1st Division · Round 3Stadiumi Tomori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Tomori Berat50%
×Draw26%
Lushnja24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomori Berat
1.47
Lushnja
0.92

Tomori Berat creates 60% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 99 away

creates per match

Tomori Berat
1.36
Lushnja
0.88

allows per match

Tomori Berat
0.95
Lushnja
1.58

finishing

Tomori Berat+0.00on par
Lushnja+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomori Berat ↓

Lushnja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tomori Berat or draw
76%
Tomori Berat or Lushnja
74%
Draw or Lushnja
50%

Winning margin

Tomori Berat wins by 2+
25%
Lushnja wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tomori Berat 1+ goals
77%
Tomori Berat 2+ goals
43%
Tomori Berat 3+ goals
18%
Lushnja 1+ goals
60%
Lushnja 2+ goals
23%
Lushnja 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tomori Berat (draw refunded)
68%
Lushnja (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomori Berat at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 55 matches

Lushnja away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomori Berat attack 1.36 + Lushnja defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Lushnja attack 0.88 + Tomori Berat defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tomori Berat scores more
50%
level
26%
Lushnja scores more
24%

Tomori Berat at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tomori Berat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Tomori Berat 2–0 Lushnja

Tomori Berat beat Lushnja 2-0 in 1st Division on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tomori in Berat.