Tombense 1–0 Volta Redonda: Result & Stats

Tombense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Volta Redonda

Daniel Amorim 90+3'

5/26/2018

Serie C · Round 7Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida (Tombos, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Tombense47%

×Draw27%

Volta Redonda26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TombenseExpected goals in this matchVolta Redonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.96

Tombense

1.41

Volta Redonda

0.96

Tombense creates 47% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 80 away

1.36

creates per match

1.07

0.84

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Tombense

1.36

Volta Redonda

1.07

allows per match

Tombense

0.84

Volta Redonda

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Volta Redonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tombense or draw

74%

Tombense or Volta Redonda

73%

Draw or Volta Redonda

53%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+

23%

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals

76%

Tombense 2+ goals

41%

Tombense 3+ goals

17%

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

62%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

25%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)

65%

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.84 · 61 matches

Volta Redonda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.45 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.36 + Volta Redonda defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Volta Redonda attack 1.07 + Tombense defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tombense scores more

47%

level

27%

Volta Redonda scores more

26%

Tombense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Rubens← Polaco

60'

Everton Sena← Everton

69'

Dija Baiano← Anselmo

77'

Anderson Rosa← Francismar

83'

João Guilherme← Rodrigo

83'

Pablo← João Cleriston

90+3'

Daniel Amorim

Tombense

Volta

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Ramón Menezes

55'▲Rubens←▼Polaco

60'▲Everton Sena←▼Everton

77'▲Anderson Rosa←▼Francismar

Tombense substitutes

RubensSenaRosaBrenoFelipeBaianoGuilhermeVictorVitorKrugerUlissesCarvalho

Manager: Marcelo Salles

69'▲Dija Baiano←▼Anselmo

83'▲João Guilherme←▼Rodrigo

83'▲Pablo←▼João Cleriston

Volta Redonda substitutes

BaianoGuilhermePabloMartínezDiegoFernandinhoJhulliamGabrielPachecoPaulo

Serie C: Tombense 1–0 Volta Redonda

Tombense beat Volta Redonda 1-0 in Serie C on May 26, 2018.

Goals: Daniel Amorim (90+3').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida (Tombos, Minas Gerais).

Tombense vs Volta Redonda — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Tombense 1–0 Volta Redonda