Tombense 3–1 BOA: Result & Stats | Serie C

Tombense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

BOA

Judivan 73' (pen), 53'

Cássio Ortega 32'

Abner 30'

6/22/2019

Serie C · Round 9Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida (Tombos, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tombense52%

×Draw27%

BOA21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TombenseExpected goals in this matchBOA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.80

Tombense

1.43

BOA

0.80

Tombense creates 79% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 18 away

1.35

creates per match

0.78

0.82

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Tombense

1.35

BOA

0.78

allows per match

Tombense

0.82

BOA

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par

BOA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

BOA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tombense or draw

79%

Tombense or BOA

73%

Draw or BOA

48%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+

26%

BOA wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals

76%

Tombense 2+ goals

42%

Tombense 3+ goals

17%

BOA 1+ goals

55%

BOA 2+ goals

19%

BOA 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)

71%

BOA (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.82 · 60 matches

BOA away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.35 + BOA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

BOA attack 0.78 + Tombense defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tombense scores more

52%

level

27%

BOA scores more

21%

Tombense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Abner

32'

Cássio Ortega

53'

Judivan

60'

Pedrinho← Rodrigo Souza

65'

Daniel Farias← Wenderson Tsunami

73'

Denilson Silva← César Sampaio

73'

JudivanPenalty

82'

Augusto Recife← Judivan

84'

Henrique Santos← Cássio Ortega

88'

Vander← Rodrigo

Tombense

BOA

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Ortega

⚽2

▼

Judivan

Manager: Ricardo Drubscky

82'▲Augusto Recife←▼Judivan

84'▲Henrique Santos←▼Cássio Ortega

88'▲Vander←▼Rodrigo

Tombense substitutes

RecifeSantosVanderVictorCordeiroLincolnSáManoelReniêRubens

Manager: Paulo Foiani

60'▲Pedrinho←▼Rodrigo Souza

65'▲Daniel Farias←▼Wenderson Tsunami

73'▲Denilson Silva←▼César Sampaio

BOA substitutes

PedrinhoFariasSilvaDaltonAndersonGindréClaudeciCristianNonoca

Serie C: Tombense 3–1 BOA

Tombense beat BOA 3-1 in Serie C on June 22, 2019.

Goals: Abner (30'), Cássio Ortega (32'), Judivan (53', 73' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida (Tombos, Minas Gerais).

Tombense vs BOA — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Tombense 3–1 BOA