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Tom Tomsk vs Baltika — First League 2018

Tom Tomsk
Tom Tomsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
8/8/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Stadion Trud (Tomsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Tom Tomsk36%
×Draw29%
Baltika35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tom Tomsk
1.11
Baltika
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 108 away

creates per match

Tom Tomsk
1.22
Baltika
1.35

allows per match

Tom Tomsk
0.85
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Tom Tomsk+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tom Tomsk ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tom Tomsk or draw
65%
Tom Tomsk or Baltika
71%
Draw or Baltika
64%

Winning margin

Tom Tomsk wins by 2+
14%
Baltika wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tom Tomsk 1+ goals
67%
Tom Tomsk 2+ goals
30%
Tom Tomsk 3+ goals
10%
Baltika 1+ goals
67%
Baltika 2+ goals
30%
Baltika 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tom Tomsk (draw refunded)
50%
Baltika (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tom Tomsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 74 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.00 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tom Tomsk attack 1.22 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Baltika attack 1.35 + Tom Tomsk defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tom Tomsk scores more
36%
level
29%
Baltika scores more
35%

Tom Tomsk at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tom Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tom Tomsk vs Baltika

Tom Tomsk and Baltika drew 1-1 in First League on August 8, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Trud (Tomsk).