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Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Ó. Ortega 62' (pen)
J. Dinenno 50'
L. López 16'
11/21/2021Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - ReclasificaciónEstadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Toluca52%
×Draw23%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.80
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.15

Toluca creates 57% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 151 away

creates per match

Toluca
2.07
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.13

allows per match

Toluca
1.18
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
76%
Toluca or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
77%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
48%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
29%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
83%
Toluca 2+ goals
54%
Toluca 3+ goals
27%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
68%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
32%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
68%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.80

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Toluca scores more
52%
level
23%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
24%

Toluca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
L. LópezU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · M
8.2

Match Events

2'
Rubens Sambueza
16'
L. López
21'
Diogo
24'
Michael Estrada
31'
Leonel López
34'
Erik Lira
50'
J. Dinenno
51'
K. Castañeda← Ian González
55'
D. Chávez← J. Vázquez
62'
Ó. OrtegaPenalty
63'
Higor← Diogo
70'
W. Corozo← S. Saucedo
74'
B. Samudio← M. Estrada
74'
J. Rodríguez← Diego
82'
Juan Dinenno
83'
Luis García
84'
J. Galindo← L. López
85'
Arturo Ortiz
90+6'
Diego Chávez

Possession

59%Toluca

Shots

13Toluca

Pass accuracy

53%Toluca

Statistics

TolucaU.N.A.M.
Overview
59%Possession41%
13Total Shots19
2Corners3
10Fouls17
Shots
13Total Shots19
3On Target7
8Off Target12
2Blocked0
6Inside Box8
7Outside Box11
Passing
59%Possession41%
425Total Passes302
339Accurate Passes212
80%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls17
4Yellow Cards5

Liga MX: Toluca 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Toluca 2-1 in Liga MX on November 21, 2021.

Goals: L. López (16'), J. Dinenno (50'), Ó. Ortega (62' pen).

Toluca controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Toluca de Lerdo.