Toluca 1–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

Toluca

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

A. Canelo 88'

2/14/2021

Liga MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Toluca52%

×Draw23%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TolucaExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.15

Toluca

1.80

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.15

Toluca creates 57% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 151 away

2.07

creates per match

1.13

1.18

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Toluca

2.07

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.13

allows per match

Toluca

1.18

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Toluca or draw

76%

Toluca or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

77%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

48%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+

29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals

83%

Toluca 2+ goals

54%

Toluca 3+ goals

27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

68%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

32%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)

68%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.80

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Toluca scores more

52%

level

23%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

24%

Toluca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

E. Lira

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · M

7.7

Match Events

41'

Favio Álvarez

46'

Miguel Barbieri

51'

Juan VigónGoal cancelled

56'

Gabriel Torres

63'

J. Iturbe← E. Montejano

64'

E. Triverio← M. Estrada

64'

J. Plata← K. Castañeda

75'

B. Mendoza← G. Torres

81'

R. Salinas← R. López

83'

J. Cobián← F. Waller

83'

Ángel García← F. Álvarez

88'

A. Canelo↳ R. Salinas

90'

Johan Vásquez

90+1'

A. Ríos← C. Baeza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TolucaU.N.A.M.

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots9

7Corners4

12Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots9

4On Target2

7Off Target5

1Blocked2

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

374Total Passes334

304Accurate Passes258

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3