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Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
C. González 33'
11/11/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Nemesio Diez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Toluca52%
×Draw23%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.80
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.15

Toluca creates 57% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 151 away

creates per match

Toluca
2.07
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.13

allows per match

Toluca
1.18
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
76%
Toluca or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
77%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
48%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
29%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
83%
Toluca 2+ goals
54%
Toluca 3+ goals
27%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
68%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
32%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
68%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.80

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Toluca scores more
52%
level
23%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
24%

Toluca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. MalcorraU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · M
7.7

Match Events

27'
A. Mora← F. Tobio
30'
Victor Malcorra
33'
C. González↳ A. Mozo
34'
Luis Mendoza
45'
Osvaldo González
46'
E. Triverio← William da Silva
61'
Alan Mendoza
66'
Pablo Barrientos
68'
D. Cabrera← C. González
77'
M. Alustiza← M. Rodríguez
78'
Cristian Borja
80'
Alan Mozo
83'
Rodrigo Salinas
84'
J. Cabrera← L. Mendoza
90'
J. Iturbe← F. Mora

Possession

59%Toluca

Shots

11Toluca

Pass accuracy

52%Toluca

Statistics

TolucaU.N.A.M.
Overview
59%Possession41%
11Total Shots15
7Corners3
13Fouls18
Shots
11Total Shots15
3On Target3
6Off Target10
2Blocked2
7Inside Box5
4Outside Box10
Passing
59%Possession41%
344Total Passes239
255Accurate Passes166
74%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls18
5Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Liga MX: Toluca 0–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Toluca 1-0 in Liga MX on November 11, 2018.

Goals: C. González (33').

Toluca controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Diez in Toluca.