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Toluca vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
3/2/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Toluca46%
×Draw25%
Tigres UANL29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.60
Tigres UANL
1.21

Toluca creates 32% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 157 away

creates per match

Toluca
2.07
Tigres UANL
1.25

allows per match

Toluca
1.18
Tigres UANL
1.13

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par
Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
71%
Toluca or Tigres UANL
75%
Draw or Tigres UANL
54%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
24%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
80%
Toluca 2+ goals
47%
Toluca 3+ goals
22%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
70%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
34%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
62%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + Tigres UANL defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tigres UANL attack 1.25 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Toluca scores more
46%
level
25%
Tigres UANL scores more
29%

Toluca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Toluca 2–1 Tigres UANL

Toluca beat Tigres UANL 2-1 in Liga MX on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Toluca de Lerdo.