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Toluca vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
Preview
00:00
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
9/21/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 9
Big match
56%
Toluca
model favours
56%22%22%

Toluca have won 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Toluca56%
×Draw22%
Santos Laguna22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.97
Santos Laguna
1.14

Toluca creates 73% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 142 away

creates per match

Toluca
2.07
Santos Laguna
1.10

allows per match

Toluca
1.18
Santos Laguna
1.88

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
78%
Toluca or Santos Laguna
78%
Draw or Santos Laguna
44%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
33%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
86%
Toluca 2+ goals
58%
Toluca 3+ goals
31%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
68%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
32%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
72%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.88 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + Santos Laguna defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.97

Santos Laguna attack 1.10 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Toluca scores more
56%
level
22%
Santos Laguna scores more
22%

Toluca at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Santos Laguna raise their game against the top half — 35% wins vs the upper half, only 29% vs the lower
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Toluca sit 5, Santos Laguna 18 in the table
  • Toluca outscore their xG (1.9 vs 1.3 expected)
  • Santos Laguna fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.4 expected)
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Toluca
Defensively solid
Santos Laguna
Balanced
55%Possession48%
85%Pass accuracy79%
16.2ShotsBiggest gap10.4
1.27xG1.43
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TolucaSantos Laguna

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

8
Toluca
0
Draws
2
Santos Laguna
Avg goals: 3.8BTTS: 70%
3–14–22–10–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Toluca
WDLDL
Laguna
LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Toluca vs Santos Laguna — Match Preview

Toluca face Santos Laguna on September 21, 2026 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.