Toluca vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 142+ matches
Toluca56%
Santos Laguna22%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Toluca creates 73% more chances
Season form · 149 home / 142 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Toluca ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches
Santos Laguna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.88 · 142 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Toluca attack 2.07 + Santos Laguna defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.97
Santos Laguna attack 1.10 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Toluca at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Leon
Tigres UANL
Monterrey
Cruz Azul
Club America
Necaxa
Pachuca
Club TijuanaToluca
PueblaSantos Laguna
Lobos Buap
Atlas
Guadalajara Chivas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Monarcas
Club Queretaro
VeracruzCruz AzulClub AmericaU.N.A.M. - PumasSantos LagunaMonterreyTigres UANLTolucaClub QueretaroMonarcasPachucaGuadalajara ChivasPueblaLobos BuapLeonClub TijuanaNecaxaAtlasVeracruzIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Toluca host Santos Laguna on Sunday, 20 September 2020 at 17:00. The match is part of the Liga MX 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Toluca vs Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna beat Toluca 2-1 in Liga MX on September 20, 2020.
Goals: W. Sandoval (40'), O. Rivero (53'), M. Estrada (90+2').
Toluca controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 16.
The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Toluca de Lerdo.